Vision and Politics in Tigray

By Teodros Kiros ( Ph.D)

In what follows I would like to give an outline  of a vision which deserves a book  which could guide us to go forward in several parts.

• The meaning of the Joint agreement
• Prioritizing the parts of the agreement
• Focusing on the Provision of the basic services as the first principle of Justice
• Organizing the Tigrean people to have a town meeting and explore the imperative of articulating a goal and  preparing the people to have a referendum
•  After the referendum
•  Independence as a Goal

•  I have repeatedly emphasized that the corner stone of the Joint Agreement  is the silencing of the guns. That has been accomplished and Tigreans are greatfull for it and using this valuable times to plant, saw, nurse their wounds and properly grieve  and begin healing.  The second part of the corner stone, is the unconditional providing of services to Tigray.  This is happening only sporadically and not in the areas called for by the agreement, but only in the areas occupied by the Ethiopian government, fano and shabia.  This may be saving lives and that is welcome also, but it is not what is agreed upon, as this is outside of the agreement, and serves the propagandistic plans of the Ethiopian regime.

It is this corner stone, which must be detached from the insistence on disarmament which must be addressed unconditionally if the agreement is to hold. Providing service is a necessary and moral act, whereas disarmament is a political arrangement, which will take years to be accomplished, because of which we must decouple morality from politics, the Good, from the contingent and strategic.  Confusing the two will inevitably lead the ending of a fragile agreement.

Silencing the guns is only a necessary condition but not sufficient to address the  primary vision of establishing peace and prosperity for Tigray and the dysfunctional Ethiopian state which has bankrupted itself by staring a war which it cannot finish.

•  The first part of the agreement reqires Trust and not merely a convenient truce. The two governments must pledge that the agreement is based on a mutual trust.  It is not clear at the moment that the two parties trust each other for the good of their citizens, or else an agreement, based on pressure by outside forces is bound to fail, if it is merely a marriage of convenience.  Conveniences are never meant to last. They are merely facilitators of a contingency.  Trust, on the other hand, although very difficult to realize, once it is patiently nurtured can produce the Good, and once the Good is on board, it can motivate the political sphere to do the right moves, such as arranging the possibilities of disarmament.  The latter can only come in time.  Trust can stimulate and time will realize it.  The steps are long. Patience and respect of the psychological conditions of the victims of genocide is an imperative which must guide the vision of reordering the two dysfunctional governments. There are no shortcuts to progress and prosperity.

The Pretoria agreement, blends the moral act of providing basic services, with  disarmament at the wrong time and in the wrong way.  Providing service requires immediacy, when Tigrean lives are hanging in the air, disarmament can only begin after trust is established and becomes a new way of life, for the combatants whose lives are marred by distrust, hate, anger and shame, all at once.   It is unreasonable to say the least to ask both the leaders and their followers to begin disarming in one month. This can only lead to disaster, as it is merely a shaky truce, which gives the combatants time to rearm and start another cycle of a meaningless war.

• At the present time,  the first principle of Justice must be the provision of basic services, as an unconditional moral and political project.  Food. Shelter, clothing, and health are the fundaments of life, without which the human being cannot live. The denial of these basic services have deprived Tigreans of a present and future life.  Thousands have died as a consequence. Many have fled their tin shacks in search of nothing.  Many more are waiting to die, if deprived of the above fundaments.  The procuring of existence and the possibility of a civilized life must secure food, shelter, clothing and health.  The defense of the first article of the joint agreement ought to be the unconditional call for the realization of the first principle of justice, as articulated in the Joint agreement, as a substantive defense of justice and simultaneously procedural.   Once the first principle of justice is realized and appropriate institutions are established to make it part of life, now we can lexically move to reorganizing the shattered infrastastructure in Tigray, and begin to rebuild the nation to be a livable place fit for human beings.  This will take many years, as we prepare Tigreans to disarm themselves willingly.  Traumas linger long after the events.  They become tagged to a life journey.  Strictly speaking traumas cannot be healed.  They are part of the self’s being in the world.  The victims cannot forget them, but in time, a long time at that, they can be forgiven.  The victims are always on the guard.  That is exactly why the Tigrean victims of genocide cannot forget, because of which it is futile to ask the survivors who are also traumatized to ready themselves to disarm in 30 days. That is really futile, and if I am add, not very intelligent.  In fact the possibility of having them forgive requires that food, shelter, medication and health be provided unconditionally to ease the victims psychological condition and prepare them to consider disarmament as a possibility in the long run.

• When disarmament is on the way, the people of Tigray should also be given the second principle of justice, the freedom to choose a form of government they wish, and most particularly a choice between returning to  Ethiopia to become a dynamic part of it, or carveout an independent Tigray.  This can be decided only after a referendum.

• After the referendum the Tigrean people and their designated leaders can then figure out the logistics of the vision, which make take a few years to decide.

• If Independence is  the only goal, the option should be carefully studied.   Town hall meetings across Tigray should be held to decide the details of the goal through a direct democracy of the people to choose their leaders. If a unity with Ethiopia is the choice similar meetings should be held to discuss the reentry of Tigray to be a living part of the Ethiopian federal state.