Isaac M. 23.12.2021 

The Ethiopian, Eritrean and Amhara forces (hereafter ‘Ethio-Eritrean criminal forces’) have killed, maimed and sexually abused tens of thousands of Tigrayans since November 2020. They have also detained hundreds of thousands of innocent civilians and kept them in concentration camps and have displayed some of them in their outrageous media as prisoners of war. They destroyed the entire socio-economic infrastructure of Tigray and Tigrayans. Most importantly, they are starving the people of Tigray by imposing a total siege on them. These will never be forgotten.  Despite the incalculable suffering they have brought to the people, they were miserably defeated by the heroes and heroines of Tigray and were pushed back close to Addis Ababa and other major cities. The Addis Ababa, Asmara and Bahri-dar leaders were shaken by the swift and tactful moves of the Tigray forces. Isn’t it astonishing to witness one self-sustained regional state of Ethiopia has defeated and fiercely challenged the armies of two counties and their foreign backers?  

Now, the criminals appear to be in a mood of revival due to foreign intervention, the deployment of drones operated by foreign mercenaries and officers. They have also irresponsibly used human wave after wave in their fight against the Tigray Defence Forces (TDF). The military leadership of the TDF must be commended for re-positioning its forces in light of a) new developments and elevated foreign intervention, b) the human-wave tactic of the enemy, c) the humanitarian crisis that has affected the entire population of the region and d) the need for peace; it was timely and necessary.

The Ethio-Eritrean criminals and their backers are capitalising on the false narrative that the TDF is weakened, and they are daydreaming to return to Tigray to eradicate the TDF and the Tigray leadership, in effect the Tigray people. The recent statements they have made in response to the Tigray call for peace affirms such a misunderstanding and miscalculation. They are dreaming to wipe-out the people in their entirety. This has been reiterated by the despotic Eritrean regime’s mouthpiece, the Eritrean Ambassador to the UN.

The criminals and enemies of the people of Tigray must be reminded of the following realities so that they refrain from miscalculating again to try to continue with their genocidal agenda:  

First, late alone today, with very strong army, battle-harden fighters and strong military leadership that managed significant military undertakings, such as the Dessie, Kombolcha, Showa, Gashena and the Tembain successful offensives, Tigray was not defeated in the first couple of months of the conflict with small and ill-prepared army and militia, significantly lower number of forces and serious logistical impediments. With all challenges and difficulties, the TDF and the people of Tigray at large are better prepared to not only defend themselves but also destroy divisions and army commands. There is no doubt that Tigray has now a formidable army than the Eritrean criminal army.

Secondly, there is not a single popular war that has been defeated by using drones and foreign mercenaries. We can refer to the Afghanistan/US, Yemen/UAE-Saudi wars. Some misleadingly refer to the Armenian and Azerbaijan recent conflict to excessively magnify the role of drones in war. Of course, technology matters in war. Yet the Nagorno-Karabakh war lasted for three weeks, was fought in some parts (but not the entire territory) of Armenia and a ceasefire was brokered by a foreign power who has leverage on both sides. The leaders of the two states who have shown civility (compared to our ignorant and arrogant leaders) decided to stop the bloodshed as 2000 people have died from both sides. What would happen had the conflict continued? We don’t know.

The war between Tigray and the Ethio-Eritrean criminals is continuing for over a year despite the deployment of UAE drones at the start of the war, and also when the Tigray forces advanced to Addis Ababa. How many people died in this protracted war? Time will tell, certainly not 2000 people. The bottom line is that having drones operated by foreign powers and mercenaries is a plus and may bring some gains for the enemy, but they won’t decide the fate of the war. The people who fight and their just cause would be the decisive factors.   

Thirdly, and following form the second point, the world public knows that the criminals at hand have committed atrocities, mass rape, expulsion, starvation and detention of civilians. The adoption of the resolution by the UN Human Rights Council to establish an independent international commission of experts on the Tigray war is among the strong evidence of such a recognition. A renewed invasion of Tigray by such criminals would, and should, therefore, be met with robust diplomatic, punitive and political pressure on the aggressors. This would have a devastating economic (and other) repercussion for the two regimes concerned and their cronies.  

Fourthly, Tigray’s offer for peace should not be misunderstood. Nor the political and military decision made to re-position the TDF.  The criminals know very well they have not defeated the TDF, and Tigray forces are intact and much better than their forces. Moreover, the people of Tigray have learnt lessons from last year’s widespread massacres, abuses and destruction by the foreign and domestic criminals. This time round, it will be fully ready to resist any aggressor coming to Tigray. Put it simply, while the criminals may or may not be allowed to enter Tigray, there is no exist if they enter once due to tactical or practical reasons. The message here is that even without any foreign intervention and pressure, things could be reversed to the detriment of the Ethio-Eritrea criminals. This is not a theoretical assumption; we have witnessed this in the last few months. The TDF has shown its ability, protentional and what they can do in days and weeks- they can decimate several divisions, military commands, and fronts as a matter of days and weeks. It is also possible that they can acquire anti-drone weapon systems.

For all these reasons, and to save millions of lives from all sides and the dying economy of Ethiopia, therefore, the path for peace must be pursued by the criminals as well as by the Tigray leadership. Whether they like it or not Tigrayans won’t submit to their false rhetoric of winning the war and extreme repression. Those who are supplying with weaponry and finance to the criminals must come to their senses that their political and economic interests won’t be protected if such a protracted war continues in Ethiopia. It goes without saying that the international community ought to revisit its failure to undertake its responsibility and take concrete action to halt the unfolding second round mass atrocity crimes in Tigray by the allied criminals.

By aiga