Tigray War and Amhara War: Are they Comparable?

Kalayu Abraha

The airwaves in Ethiopia are congested with the convenient but irritating narrative that the War in Tigray is being replicated in the Amhara Region. If replication is intended to mean that guns are fired and drones are being used I agree a hundred percent that the two are comparable. However, comparing wars and drawing similarities is not based on the facts that guns are fired in both. Since the advent of the gunpowder a few centuries back guns are fired in wars and this is a very weak basis for comparing them. Wars are normally compared not by how they are being conducted but why they are being conducted and who is involved in them. The whole truth and nothing but the truth is that the Tigray War and the Amhara War are not comparable but strongly related.

The Amhara political elite do not want to take the whole blame for the Tigray War. They try to escape the blame by posing as victims of a similar campaign conducted against Tigray by the “Oromized” ENDF. They have shifted the propaganda tune and are imitating Tigray’s call for justice in almost identical terminology. Now they have succeeded to muffle the voice of Tigray and have become much louder because they are in the possession of a massive propaganda machine. The Tigray airwaves are so jammed that the world has become less attentive and less sympathetic to the Tigray call for justice. First and foremost, the settings of the two wars are different. The War in Tigray was against the elected Regional Government; and by extension against the people of Tigray. TPLF may be compared with Fano as a political entity; but the former was a ruling party while the latter is just an irregular armed group wreaking havoc to law and order in the Amhara Region and far beyond.  In the Amhara Region the elected Regional Government is not the target of Federal attack; it is rather an ally of the Federal Government against the Fano. Amhara Regional Government moved to the Federal Palace in Addis Ababa while Tigray Regional Government moved to the mountains and valleys of Tembien! During the Tigray War against the elected Regional Government of Tigray the Amhara Regional Government was on the driver’s seat of the invasion on Tigray.

Amhara Region politicians, allied with Oromia Region politicians as the Oromara Block, invaded Tigray. After they failed to subjugate Tigray the two turned against each other blaming each other for their failures in Tigray. Does anybody have so much of short memory enough to forget that the Amhara political elite turned against its Oromara partner for signing the Pretoria agreement to end the War in Tigray? Wasn’t this the core reason for the Federal Government to act on the strong Amhara opposition that took up arms against the Pretoria agreement and what the latter called the betrayal of the Oromia Prosperity Party? The War in Tigray and the resistance waged by the TDF was neither to demolish Ethiopia not to destroy the Amhara. To the contrary, the Amhara elite were determined to eliminate Tigray as a demographic and geographic unit by inviting a foreign force in violation of the territorial integrity of Ethiopia. Tigray was only trying to save its people from the destruction planned on it.

The Amhara political elite changed the narratives to a reverse gear and are portraying the war in the Amhara Region as their turn in the queue next to Tigray. They are shifting the blame for the Tigray War to the Federal Government and Oromia Prosperity Party as if they did not play the leading role in it misleading the Prime Minister to invade Tigray and invite Eritrea into the War. Abiy Ahmed had almost no interest in invading Tigray. His sole interest has been to protect his throne at Arat Kilo. When he saw that it was dangerous for his Premiership to tolerate Tigray, to the dissatisfaction of the Amhara elite hell bent to destroy Tigray, he selfishly jumped into the ill-fated Tigray allied invasion. Now Abiy Ahmed is nostalgic about the prewar years and dreams to relive them. He is furious at those who misled him against Tigray. Tigray can only be a passive spectator in the fight between Abiy Ahmed Amhara elite and Eritrean rulers. No interference when the demons fight one another. It is for the better!

Amhara elite in the media, who were preaching genocide in Tigray as 95 versus 5, have drastically changed their terminology drawing similarities with Tigray as if their loud calls for genocide in Tigray are not recorded. With a lot of noise and repetition they are trying to brainwash the people of Ethiopia and obliterate any sign of the evil things they have been doing before and during the Tigray War. Many are having strange expectations from Tigray to condemn the Amhara War and even stand with the Amhara against the Federal Government. They tell Tigrayans, as if the latter were forgetful kids, that the Amhara political elite opposed the Tigray War while Oromo political elite supported it. This can only be a funny word game played by the Arada street children when they want to hoodwink each other.

The bitter pill of truth for the Amhara political elite to swallow with eyes closed is, had it not been for the Oromo reservation and even strong opposition to the War in Tigray the Amhara propelled War in Tigray could have continued to this day further devastating Tigray. Tens of thousands of ENDF troops were surrendering to TDF not because they were not brave enough to continue fighting but because they did not believe in the War itself. Who was killing and robbing ENDF troops who refused to continue fighting in Tigray? THE FANO, with full political backing from the Amhara elite. It is serving justice for the ENDF to take revenge against the Fano. ENDF are not lesser Ethiopians than the Fano.

Tigray is politically and culturally mature enough to oppose civilian killings even within the territories of its enemies. Tigray never supports any action by the ENDF that causes harm to innocent Amhara civilians. It is too intelligent to repeat the statements made by the callous Amhara political elite that “…there are no civilians in Tigray and hence there are no civilian deaths”. Tigray prefers to blame only the Amhara elite for the invasion and destruction of Tigray; but it knows perfectly well that millions of ordinary Amhara civilians did their best to participate in the invasion of Tigray directly or indirectly. To hammer my point home I will use the World War II experiences of alliance and counter alliance. When Germany invaded France Italy was member of the Axis Powers in alliance with Germany. Imagine a situation after the War Italy invades Germany and the latter calls France for help! If readers you were the President of France what would you ask the French Parliament to do? Help Germany against Italy? That’s insane! How about the innocent French millions who perished in the hands of Axis troops? How about French economy devastated by the Axis Powers until it was somehow restored by the US Marshall Plan? In this regard the best policy for France is to turn deaf ears to Germany’s call for help.

I think Tigray is doing exactly that. It may help the Federal Government against the Fano irregulars not out of love for the ENDF but because it has a stake in the occupied Territories of Tigray which is the logical outcome of Amhara extremism embodied in the Fano.