Tigrai’s ህዝባዊ (Public) Diplomacy (ርክብ)
By Aesop
09/30/2022
Fate has, once again, challenged Tigreans to tap their potential to step up in the realm of diplomacy. I am not going to speak about the Adi Daero massacre here except refer Taleb’s book: “Antifragile!” Let’s just say Tigrai’s enemies cut hydra’s head. What I will say is this: Tigrai’s leaders and those rallying behind them are: “ህዝባዊ!!” Both Tigrai’s fight (war) and Tigrai’s peace (diplomacy and politics) are, essentially, popular (ህዝባዊ). So, how should they interact with other people in trying times? With confidence or with Cynicism? Well, confidence breeds trust wheareas cynicism bears paranoia. I will expound on the ideal essence of Tigrai’s diplomacy, as I understand it.
Now, Western diplomacy is anchored in aristocracy diplomacy, a deal amongst gentlemen (read Diplomacy by Kissinger). It highlights the witty attribute of a Metternich, a Bismarck, an Adenauer, a De Gaul, a Sadat or what have you (again, read Kissinger’s Leadership). But I am talking about modern Tigrai here, not the West: Meles’s (agrarian mindset which made him a spokesperson for Africa and the poor people trapped by climate change) and, most recently, Abay Tsehaye’s diplomatic perspective, when he said: “when they corner us, we will stretch out hands to the masses, the nations and nationalities!” It is this mindset, that authentic Tigrean diplomacy, that should be scaled up worldwide.
Tigrai’s popular diplomacy is, I’d dare argue, a unique contribution to civilization that only enemy POWs get to enjoy these days. This homemade craft transcends the common definition of public diplomacy where the focus is influencing elites, wrongly dumbing down people to people relations as just means to an end. Well, Tigrai’s unique diplomacy, that unflinching faith the power of the masses, is indeed a potent force, when properly channeled, that will shake democratic countries where people cast to form their governments.
Before going further, let me debunk the recent cynicism regarding diplomacy. Some among Tigrai’s leaders, including pro Tigrai “expat scholars” seem to have bought the narrative that the world has “betrayed Tigrai”. This cynicism, although noble, is misleading. Tigrai is neither Iran nor North Korea. It is not going nuclear. Nor is Tigrai Eritrea who enslaves its own people. Tigrai has no skeleton hidden in its closet, hence no reason to be paranoid. If there is anyone who should be afraid it should be the global bureaucrats and representatives pretending to uphold the UN charters while ignoring kindergarten kids perishing over drone attacks,
Afterall, when we speak about the world, who are we speaking of? Is it the suit wearing bureaucrats passing as a kingmaker in poor countries, or the hundreds of millions of average Joes who directly or otherwise elected the person hailing from some middle class county? The truth is this is: ordinary people in democratic countries are more powerful than their elected officials and the envoys who follow. So, as Abay put it, “Tigreans should stretch their hands to them as well!” Knowing this, Tigreans, especially those in diaspora enjoying democratic rights, should never entertain cynicism no matter what this or that “expert” thinks. Yes! Tigrai can stir the world to its will so long as it wields a just cause- something its enemies lack.
Elsewhere, I’ve sufficiently expounded on the levers of foreign policy decision making. But that expose was neither comprehensive nor intended to spread cynicism. It was just an overview. It was intended to inspire Tigreans, especially those interested about the world, to look under the hood, check the gears. Here, I will touch on a powerful force that dictates foreign policy decision making in powerful “democratic” countries, viz,: public opinion..
All nations have leaders and bureaucracies who craft foreign policy. They also reside in a global order that was bipolar, unipolar, and (today) multipolar. Few are superpowers, some are middle powers, and the rest are paper tigers. I have touched on this arrangement elsewhere. Here, I will focus on the super and great powers that are democratic. It is not necessary to discuss autocratic regimes led by personalistic dictatorship here because these powers fall under democratic nations that are powerful. Therefore, the concern for Tigreans is to focus on democratic countries wielding significant power. When we ask what influenced foreign policy in democratic countries, we realize that it is: public opinion.
The power of public opinion in foreign policy is most visible when one explores the single term leaders. Why did Jimmy Carter lose election? Because he made a debacle in Iran. Why did George Bush senior lose election to Clinton? Why did Clinton pull off Somalia? Why did Trump step down after four years? These administrations failed because the American people did not approve their decisions. In other words, Tigreans should understand, especially Tigrean Americans, should realize that the American ህዝቢ hold the key to foreign policy decisions in democratic nations. This takes us to raise two questions: 1) what do the American people expect from their diplomats? 2) how are the American people informed?
Let me begin with question no.2. The American people hear about the world through their media. The American media is not a free market. It is an oligopoly. The American media is controlled by few popular media outlets. Recently, Tigreans have helped the CNN win a prestigious award for exposing the Tigrean genocide. That means other medias wanting to take a bite on the media market will want o bask on the ongoing genocide in Tigrai- in case CNN is satiated. Text medias like Washington Post and New York Times have reported on Tigrai’s saga and plight. These days, the New Yorker has also attempted to bask on the Tigrean genocide through misinformation. It is up to Tegaru diaspora to expose the genocide against their brethren either a) directly: via approaching people in democratic countries through demonstrations, lobbying, etc., and b) indirectly by convincing the dominant media that they can win an “emmy” and the moral reward by standing with Tigrai, i.e., exposing tyrants. Tigreans are in a position where they should be encouraged by their incessant activism which has rewarded the righteous reporters and medias. Let me return to the first question: the causal relationship between public opinion and foreign policy decision.
Well, foreign policy decisions are dictated by public opinion. This is the fact in democratic countries, especially powerful countries. Leaders in democratic countries (including those in judiciary) know very well that blunders in foreign policy will cost them their mandate to rule. So, the question is whether the people are privy to their blunders or not. Otherwise, we would not be watching public opinion polls being dissected, trying to predict winners and losers, whenever elections come by.
Some examples: I shall not explore how the Jews diaspora influences American policy here- except point Mearshimer’s book on the matter. Nor will I explore other powerful diasporas except point at Amy Chua’s book on the subject. I will simply dwell on simple examples here. When the special forces Jimmy Carter sent to Iran, to free American hostages crushed, he lost his second term election- there’s a book vividly depicting on how he awakened to the matter. When the American people saw their soldiers being dragged on the streets of Mogadishu in CNN (read Black Hawk Down), Bill Clinton had no choice but to pull out his troops to ensure he wins the second term. By contrast, the American people, including Canadians, were not privy to General Dallairs’s constant plea that genocide in Rwanda (read Shake Hands with the Devil)- let’s just say Rwanda lacked a strong diaspora- inter alia. But there are infinite Americans of East European descent, including Albright, who opposed Milosevich, and media was there to expose him- ultimately, putting forcing him to stand in the Global Criminal Court. Charles Taylor, dictating former American colony, also could not escape American people- although he escaped from American prison. Samantha Power’s, Problem from Hell, vividly depicts the uphill battle few civilians/academics (not political elites) took on to ensure the world ratifies the genocide convention.
Tigreans should remember that all people/ordinary folks have the similar aspirations. They want to live in peace, prosper, cooperate, and see justice served. Now, billions of people, like those living in Russia, most Arab countries, China, most of Africa (especially Ethiopia and Eritrea), are not fortunate enough to realize these aspiration as they are not citizens in the real sense of the term. These people are slaves or subjects of tyrants, held down in chains, unable to influence the foreign policy decisions of their rulers. But the West is structurally designed differently. Each administrations making foreign policy decision are accountable to their people. Their term in power is limited. The leaders or envoys know they are not demigods- even if they wish to be (like Trump). Of course, there are indications, like the book Double Government, arguing this in done imperfectly, but one can be sure that leaders don’t want to see another “Water Gates” scandal.
The recent cynicism that the West has betrayed Tigrai is, essentially, founded on a misplaced assumption that policies are determined by the political aristocracy (as in the Gulf states). This sort of cynicism is the defense mechanism of Eritrean diplomats, those unable to make their case solely because they preside over a slave state. Eritrean diplomats lament that the “the Americans and Europeans have betrayed or abandoned them!” as they should! Tigreans are not ruled by a tyrant and have the rational and moral grounds to rally the world, i.e., primarily, the masses, the stand with them.
Tigreans should know that there is no political aristocracy/or princes in the West akin to the medieval princes one sees the Gulf states. The American people replaced Pompeo with Blinken with a blink of an eye. Tigreans, especially the citizens/residents of democratic nations should reach out to their fellow compatriots, including the media and spread the Tigrean gospel like the decuples- fully cognizant that public opinion dictates foreign policy of democratic countries. No president, leave alone a special envoy, can turn over the will of the people.
The Tigrean leadership and diaspora should realize that, as recent experience demonstrated, democratic medias exposing mass atrocities are amply rewarded for the troubles they go through in exposing the truth. Standing with Tigrai pays. They should welcome whoever wishes to reveal the truth about Tigrai. Anyone (expert or not, professor or a layman) trying to convince Tigreans that that powerful countries, especially democratic countries, have betrayed Tigrai, is not privy to the role of public opinion in shaping foreign policy. This perspective is an earth worms’ view, focused on the “elite boardgames” rather than the big picture- the bird’s eye view. The Tigrai diaspora should never forget it was thanks to their heroic activism, not the good will of global elites (this or that ex or incumbent diplomat, renowned academic or celebrity), that the UN sat down many times to discuss Tigrai. It is, therefore, imperative to bear in mind that relentless optimism (or, Chuzpah in Hebrew), anchored in just cause, and not cynicism (nature of Eritrean diplomacy), that should define the core essence of Tigrean ህዝባዊ ርክብ (public diplomacy)!