By Aesop
10/19/2022
Tigrai’s enemies have penetrated into Tigrai. They have taken Sheraro and then Shire as Tigrai’s leaders reported. This is not a new that Tigreans wish to entertain, given what transpired before. We all know what Tigrai’s enemies do when they see a young Tigrean boy, girl, father, scholar, or any Tigrean whose eyes light up. So, Shire’s occupation is a big loss for Tigrai. Tigrai’s enemies are also fighting to occupy other parts of Tigrai. Regardless of the desire of Tigrai’s leaders to report it, any observer can testify that its enemies are fighting to occupy other hubs of Tigrai. It is therefore important to ask important question: is this a retreat or a blunder.
Before addressing the important distinction between a retreat and a blunder, it is necessary to reevaluate the Tigrean value. More often than not, we hear Tigrean “elites” and “opinion makers” expressing bewilderment pertaining their enemies. They openly express that they are overwhelmed by their enemies’ mindset. Having experienced what Tigrai’s enemies did over that past decade, at least since 2016 (when they targeted Tigreans in Gondar), if not since 2018 when they openly called Tigrai’s leaders predators, all Tigreans (notwithstanding those who went to school) should be able to know who their enemies are! Tigreans should QUIT applying their Judeo-Christian lens in assessing their enemies. Their enemies, foreign (Eritrea and others) and domestic (convince and convince camp), are MACHIAVELLIANS!!
What is a Machiavellian? A Machiavellian is somebody whose sole purpose is getting and keeping political power in the real world. A Machiavellian does not give a hot about the edicts of Jesus Christ or Prophet Mohammed. A Machiavellian will not just sacrifice these MORAL LEADERS, but it will pose as them to realize its goal of GETTING & MAINTAINING political power. By the way, I am not here talking about those fighting on the battlefield. Tigreans should accept the fact that its POWs will bid their time, as factually seen in the young Fano fella who, as soon as released, reappeared in social media calling for Tigrean genocide. They must accept the fact that the tyrants deploying soldiers (including the high ranking military officers) that they intend to commit genocide in Tigrai. Not only that. As difficult as it sounds, Tigreans should acknowledge the fact that the so called foreign officials and experts will move on sooner than expected in the aftermath of Tigrai’s genocide.
In short, Tigreans should STOP asking WHY OTHERS BETRAYED THEM, if not their conscience- which Tigreans think were built on the foundation of the three Abrahamic religions (Judaism, Christianity, Islam). Tigrai’s enemies, not only those executing but also those denying, ignoring, and undermining the Tigrai genocide are all: MACHIAVELLIANS!! They are SELFISH!! The sooner Tigrai accept this fact, the better its chance to survive. Any Tigrean who attended higher education (from journalist to a lawyer; from a political scientist to an engineer) should ADAPT to the fact that Tigrai is dealing with MACHIAVELLIANS- a bunch that has forfeited ETHICS! Any Tigrean who expresses surprise over its enemies is committing blunder, not retreat! But what’s the difference between a blunder and a retreat. Tigrai should HEAR its enemies, but QUIT LISTENING to them!
Retreat and blunder are the children of setback. Setback is retrogression, not progress. It is a state one reaches against his/her will. When setback beyond one’s capacity, it is a retreat. If setback is something that one could avoid, one is committing a blunder. Retreating is something that can be reverse but blunder is irreversible. So, it is not important to discuss retreat as it is a temporary situation. But it is important to address BLUNDER as it has a grave consequence.
Now, blunder, put succinctly, is a defeat one faces when one could have emerged victorious. When does blunder take place? More specifically, when does a military blunder ensue? Well, military blunder taken place when four things happen: 1) Failure in Planning/strategic blunder: (making bad decision or omitting a good decision- i.e.; unclear or poor/wrong-gain to loss ratio, bad intel or deliberately ignoring it b/c it contradicts with ones’ wishes, failing to consider terrain differences ; 2) Failure in Leadership: unfit/incompetent, or overconfident- tendency to reject a reality beyond one’s specialty or abilities ; 3) Failure in Execution/tactical blunder- unwise commander, broken unity of command/no chain/autonomous commanders, communication failure, calling off a failed operation; and 4) Failure in Adaptation to CHANGE- avoiding clinging to outmoded strategies and tactics- no matter how gallant, adapting to new weapons systems and technology.
Most military scholars (except some folks afflicted with the petty hubris of calling themselves as “the ‘Kissingers’ (really, now?!) of the Tigrean war”), P.L.E.A are the four paths leading to military blunders in world history. A military that has a good plan, good leadership, good execution, and good adoptability might face setbacks here and there. But it won’t make a military BLUNDER. I pen this with a confidence that Tigrai’s enemies are PLEA positive- given the blunders they made so far. Accordingly, I also write this with the good faith that Tigrai’s setback in Sheraro and Shire is an outcome of a retreat, not a military blunder.
At this point, it is clear that Tigrai’s enemies have adopted the US civil war example as a blueprint. The Confederacy had able military leaders who were able to attain significant battlefield victories at the beginning of the war. Yet, it was also evident that the Union forces, led by Lincoln, had the advantage of a gigantic economic and manpower. The Union forces were also able to blockade, by deploying the Navy. the Confederacy from getting external support. It is also known that Union Generals, especially Sherman, employed the scorched earth tactic to starve the Confederacy strongholds. And, finally, Lincoln emerged victorious. Unfortunately, this analogy falters when applied on Tigrai.
First, Lincoln’s goal is to liberate slaves. Isaias/Abiy, by contrast, wish to enslave Tigrai. Second, the US is a melting pot whereas Eritrea and Ethiopia are mosaic/multiethnic states. Third, the Union economy was thriving when Lincoln took charge. Eritrea, by contrast in Ethiopia’s parasite, which, in turn, has few weeks’ long reserve. And, finally, we live in a post-WWII world where applying scorched earth tactics warfare (genocidal famine crimes) is officially ratified as a war crimes. And, finally, we also live in an information age where genocide can easily be reported globally. That means no earthly power, let alone Eritrea-Ethiopia led coalition, can subdue Tigrai so long as the world, especially Tigrai diaspora remains vigilant. That is one of the reasons why Tigrai, albeit paying huge price, is destined to PREVAIL!!
In conclusion, I am convinced that Tigreans should focus on two important issues. First, they must STOP judging their enemies using the ABRAHAMIC religions that, in turn, laid foundation for the morals and the laws of the civilization. Tigrai’s enemies are MACHIAVELLIANS who do not face moral repugnance to transgress God’s/Allah’s commandments without remorse. They are ready to face hell as a result. Tigreans are fated to shoulder the difficult task of preventing their enemies from facing their CREATOR as it would require their extinction. Tigreans should accept the DEVIL as a DEVIL! Second, Tigreans should distinguish between the two types of military setbacks: A RETREAT and A BLUNDER. If Tigrai’s military retreated because things are beyond its capacity, then it is OK! Tigrais’ military should be commended for being reasonable enough to rationally weight the benefits and costs of engaging its enemies. By contrast, if Tigrai’s setback is an outcome of a BLUNDER, i.e., a failure in planning, leadership, execution, and adaptability, Tigreans should have a cause for concern. If the past is any indication of the future, I should like to think that Tigrai’s military has retreated. I also would expect Tigrai’s leaders to ADAPT quickly and reevaluate the scope of this war because Tigrai’s enemies, alongside their enablers, have inadvertently given Tigrai’s army the GREEN LIGHT to launch a military expedition in their territories, i.e., inside ERITREA and ETHIOPIA. When one takes account of Tigrai’s JUS CAUSE and the globalized world that Tigrean diaspora has effectively adopted to, plus the reality on the ground, a reasonable person, including those dubbed ‘regional gurus’ examining the circumstances would conclude that TIGRAI WILL PREVAIL!
NB: I’ve never seen powerful actors like the US, Russia, UK, Germany, China, Israel etc. desperately seeking a foreigner’s insight or wisdom on their domestic security so seriously- have you?? So, why should Tigrai care about what non-Tigreans starve over what non-Tigreans forecast about Tigrai’s destiny, regardless of how well educated, powerful, ‘experts’ they claim to be? Why should they not? Because, after all is said and done, non-Tigreans have no skin in the game, i.e.: none of the relatives reside in Tigrai!!) So, I think it’s wise for Tigreans to take what others (friends or foes) say about them with a grain of salt. If Tigreans, especially their leaders, wish to survive, they should start to THINK FOR THEMSELVES!!