By Aesop
09/05/2022
Tigrai has its own psychological makeup reflected in its leaders. Whether ther mindset matches with what’s really going on in the world is another matter. Tigrai’s enemies are synthetic politicians, devoid of domestic support. The world, on the other hand, is ordered in what’s dubbed “equilibrium or balance of power” formula, trapping neighbors in their locality by setting them against one another. Those who transcended this equilibrium, namely: those living in peace with their neighbors are great powers and the rest are not.
The world order has a taste. It has a taste for synthetic politicians that serve others. Countries trapped by “balance of power calculus” are led by synthetic politicians mobilizing their people against their neighbors. What’s a synthetic politician? It is a leadership created, nurtured, and accountable to foreign powers. One can understand these “made is somewhere else” politicians by juxtaposing them with organic politician. Organic politicians are leaders who ride or die with their people. They never compromise, betray, or give up on their people. Time to example.
Tigrai’s leaders are organic politicians. Tigrai’s politicians, including the few opposition, are ones who ride and die with their people. By the way, Tigrai’s politicians are those who reside inside Tigrai. The rest are doing correspondence politics, hence synthetic- or “made somewhere else”. On the other hand, Eritrea’s despots answer to the Arab princelings. Oromo PP answers to Eritrean despot. And, Amhara PP answers to Oromo PP. Tigrai’s enemies do not have popular support. A litmus test? Nobody would believe Isaias or Abiy would come back to power like TPLF’s leaders after abandoning their capital. The center of gravity of these despots is their capital- akin to Saddam Hussein, Ghaddafi and other dictators dependent on their pretorian guards.
Unfortunately, this world is not ordered per Tigrai’s moral standard. We live in a world order dubbed “balance of power”. This is a world that sets neighbors against each other in order to curb peoples’ ambition on local issues, leaving global affairs for few “great powers”. One can never deny, for example, France’s direct engagement in African politics, bring up and down an African leaders who would serve their quest to extricate minerals from Africa. After looking at Le Monde, AFP, and Algeria (former French colony) incursions, I’d not be surprised to see Marcon- perhaps against Britain? I’d not pursue this further since Europe is also bound by balance of power. So, lets explore the world.
Why is the UAE against Qatar? Why is Saudi against Yemen backed by Iran backs it? Why is Greece concerned about Turkey? Why did Britain exit France-German led EU? Why is India on guard against Pakistan? Why is Nepal using China to balance India while India is sheltering the Delai Lama to piss off China? Why is Japan concerned about China’s encroachments in the South China sea? Why is South Korea set against North Korea? Why is Israel fighting Palestine? Why did Finland join NATO against Russia’s encroachment in Ukraine? Instead of encouraging regional integration, this so-called “equilibrium formula” sets neighbors against each other, rendering them unable to pursue bigger goals. In short, we live is a world setting Cain against Abel.
Now, it behooves for Cain to refrain from murdering Abel. Abel may tray his best to extricate Cain from jealousy. However, there is no guarantee Abel can win Cain’s heart. Tigrai’s leaders have done what they can to convince their neighbors that peace and harmony is better than war and animosity. Will Tigrai’s neighbors listen to Tigrai? Yes! But will they do anything about it? Probably not! Why not? Because they are subjects and slaves of fake politicians. Tigrai’s neighbors will definitely engage in passive resistance by refusing to cooperate with their oppressors. But they are in chains. The best they can do is stop cheering, evade conscription or end up as POW’s. Neither Eritreans nor Amhara will overthrow their oppressors and that is a fact. It is important for Tigrai to manage its expectation from these people based on facts.
To conclude, Tigrai has regional and global challenges. The regional challenges originate from the fact that their neighbors are taken hostage by synthetic politicians accountable to foreign powers. The global challenge is Tigrai lives in a world ordered by the so called “equilibrium calculus” setting neighbors against each other so they don’t pursue global ambitions. The neighbors who overcame these traps managed to bury the hatchet and emerged as great powers. Those who continue to fight their neighbors remain rostered as “fragile nations” by the “conflict mangers” consolidating “the balance of power” formula to preserve their preeminence. Tigrai needs to understand this global context (balancing neighbors), pin point the genesis (implanting synthetic politicians) of the regional conflict, and manage its expectation (understand they are slaves of despots) regarding what its neighbors, i.e., ordinary folks, can possibly do to change the status quo. Ultimately, Tigrai must scale itself and others with action than words!