I listen carefully Obbo Jawar Mohammed interview with “Ubuntu” and other YouTubers and the many speeches he made recently with his audiences in many European, Scandinavian and in United States of America. I want to appreciate Obbo Jawar and Obbo baqqalaa Garbaa for their acknowledgement and understanding the heinous crimes committed against the people of Tigray by Abiy and his domestic as well as foreign war partners. As I understood, the purposes of Jawar tour to all these countries are said to be, first to express his gratitude (Galatoomaa) to his supporters while Jawar and his comrades were in jail, and the second is to inform his supporters about the importance of peace and negotiation to settle the government sponsored conflicts in Ethiopia. I do not want to comment on the first mission of Jawar, because what I know is that less efforts have been done by his supporters to freed him from jail. Although he raised some issues that could be raised questions or need more explanation, in general the speeches he made is encouraging, and commendable. It is hard to believe politicians based on what they said in public. However, based on what I heard from his speeches so far, it is fair to say that there is a paradigm shift and a self-reflection in Ato Jawar’s political outlooks and personality. But this doesn’t mean that he is immune from any criticism when he misspoken or trying to overlook events, which I will be explain later. I follows Jawar political activities since he came as a public political figure, and the way I understood him then is different than now. I don’t like political speculations, knowing that it is my right to change my view when things changing their course.
When we talk about public figures personalities, what we should take into consideration is that Ethiopian politics is conspiratorial in nature, mainly indoctrinated by Machiavellian and Marxism- Leninism ideology (ignoring the current situation where politics is strictly attached with ethnicity and thanks Abiy religion and politics are mixed in today’s Ethiopia). The other issue is, as we know in Ethiopian context involving in politics is to control power, and using power as an instrument to control all means of economic activities as well as judicially and security apparatus to serve and satisfy self and groups interests. For this reason, I am not sure if Jawar is honest what he is talking about in public at this time, or not sure either if he expressed his political party views or his own, and free from any kind of political mantra! I remember when Abiy came to power how he got overwhelming supports from Ethiopian population, including me, without knowing how mischievous, a killer and a Devil shield with human flesh he is. In particular I trusted him because I thought he is young and he could be free from the 60’s and 70’s dirty political intrigues many Ethiopians (including myself) has passed through, and he will bring a new ideas and visions to the Ethiopian new generation. Unfortunately, we got not what we expected, but what we even not imagined. Understanding the support what Jawar has, I wish him to be free from this kind of mischievous political game, and pursue healthy and transparent politics. Regarding, Jawar, what I am hearing from different sources is not good, but as I said earlier, I will not speculate and time will reveal the truth.
The other issue what I want to talk about here is that I see Jawar as an activist as well as a politician, with less understanding of the complexities of the “Habesha” politics, which includes Shabia. I don’t expect much from Jawar to give a precise judgement for what has happened in Tigray as a result of the unjustified, unprovoked and government sponsored war against the people of Tigray. Besides, multiple times Jawar intentionally uses the phrase “the ruling elites of Tigray” or “Tigray generals” accusing them as if they are the only responsible group for any crimes that has committed in Ethiopia during the former EPRDF government administration. In some instances, he is trying to compare and contrast the injustice committed in various parts of Ethiopia during EPRDF government and the heinous crimes that has committed recently against the people of Tigray by Abiy and his associates. This narrative is not new and it is deliberate and it is an extension of Abiy’s policies he pursues since he came to power to isolate TPLF then to prepare a ground to commit ethnic cleansing and genocide against the people of Tigray. Therefore, because of the sensitivity of the issue, and the presence of documents, I advise Jawar to take extra cautions when he speaks about the war in Tigray. My point here is, even though no one is expecting to feel the same pain what many Tegarus are feeling, at least we have to refrain from undermining the heinous crimes committed against the people of Tigray for the sake of political consumption. Imagine, while someone have the potential to help his/her immediate families as well as others who badly needs help, they are helpless because the Ethiopian government deliberately blocked everything from entering Tigray. Your instincts are pounding your mind that your families are dying of manmade hunger, or due to lack of access to health services or they stretched their hand for help, as if someone is near them to reach out, but with no avail! I know there are people, including Jawar and Obbo baqqalaa Garbaa who shows empathy and sympathy to the people of Tigray, but I do not think the pain and the feeling is the same as what Tegaru’s are feeling. Leaving aside these facts and talking peace by overlooking the real pains of the victims for the sake of “peace without justice” is by far more painful than rubbing salt into a fresh wound! What Jawar do not understand is that when he is trying to overlooks the atrocities committed against the people of Tigray by the coalitions of the Trio’s, namely Abiy, Shabia and some Amhara extremist he is also denying the atrocities committed against the people of Oromo in the name of eradicating “Shene”. The same thing is true for Benshangul-Gumuz, Kimant, Agew, Gambella, and those Amhara peoples massacred in some part of Oromia, and Benshangul-Gumuz at the hands of the government and by some armed groups. Denying justice for one person is denying justice for all!
Before I jumped to comment further on what Jawar has said about Shabia when he talks about Tigray war and how it should be solved, I want to say few words why Abiy and his associates has started the war on the people of Tigray. As we know when Abiy started the war under the pretext of “TPLF attacked on the Northern military Command” he and his domestic as well as foreign collaborators have different but countless interests and objectives. To my understanding I can mention here four main things. One is power, and the second is an economic interest, and the third is religion and the fourth is seeking revenge due to deep hate against the people of Tigray, in particular from Shabia and some extremist Amhara elites and their naïve supporters, particularly residing in foreign countries. Therefore, to achieve their objectives, they have to fulfill the following:
1. One of Abiy’s and his domestic as well as foreign war supporters’ main purpose is to remove TPLF from existence. However, the problem with Abiy is when he thinks about TPLF he does not differentiate between TPLF and the people of Tigray. Because of this, Abiy decided to inflict unforgettable harms to the people of Tigray in the name of TPLF without any distinction. To fulfill this, Abiy put in his agendas since he came to power, to unlawfully denies the right of Tigrayans from participating in Ethiopian politics, economy and social as well as religious activities. As a result of this, the war In Tigray is not against small political groups but against the people as a whole. By any standard, any war targeting people is considered as ethnic cleansing and in the worst scenario genocide.
2. To minimize Tigray land territories by giving domestically to Amhara, Afar and externally to Eritrea.
3. To create unstoppable war between Tigray and the people of Amhara, by creating Ethiopian Kashmir, or Gaza-strip, and West bank hot spots in the name of “Wolkait, and Raya”.
- To accomplish the above mentioned three issues the people of Tigray should be poor, and the elites, including those social groups who are exposed to enlightenment should be eliminated and any infrastructure, manufacturing industries, educational facilities, historical heritage places, and health services facilities built in Tigray should be abolished (the main policy of Isayas of Eritrea and the reason why he involved to accomplish this mission of “social cleansing”).
Coming to Jawar interview, I observed not only self-reflection but in some case deflection in particular the opinion he repeatedly spoken about the importance of Shabia involvement in Ethiopia peace negotiation process. What surprised me is not his ideas, but the justifications he presented to support his idea is unconvincing to me. To me Eritrea is a neighboring country the same as Sudan, Kenya, Djibouti, and Somalia period! I strongly support Jawar’s efforts to bring peace inside the country, but at the same time very strongly I opposed his intention to include Shabia in Ethiopian peace process as a stake holder. What Jawar said is “Shabia has a security threat from Tigray and hence Eritrean issue should be treated as” half domestic and half foreign”. What he means is that Shabia should be involved in any kind of negotiations that could be held between the government in Addis and the people of Tigray. By the way this idea is not only Jawar’s opinion. Due to lack of self-confidence, the majority of Abiy supporters, in particular from the Amhara elites they openly promoting and advocating this idea. What should be clear here is:
1.What Jawar should understand is that it is Shabia, a foreign agent who is the main sponsor of the Tigray war. If Jawar is asking that separate negotiation should be take place between TPLF and Shabia that is another subject which should no be raised here.
2. If we allow Eritrea or any other foreign country in our internal affairs being it as a direct or indirect negotiator in any forms or level, we have to stop talking about peace, and change the narrative to the continuation of the war. The truth of the matter is
3.Tigray is still part of Ethiopia, and it should not be in any case to be considered as a threat to Eritrea if the causes of the conflicts solved through negotiation (what is right to say is that it is Shabia who is the real threat not only for the people of Tigray, but also for the entire Eastern African people!).
4. How Jawar understood the case of Eritrea with regard to its independence as well as its involvement in Tigray war is incorrect, and labeling the Eritrean formal secession as a “complicating divorce” is completely wrong.
5. Eritrea independence is real and have got an international recognition as an independent country. For this reason, Eritrea is a member of United Nation and other international organizations.
6. Although I agreed with Jawar how the referendum was conducted, the majority of Eritrean cast their vote for independent, and because of this they have their own flag, currency, defense forces and build their own phycological make-up.
7. Although there are unsettled problems due to the stubborn nature of Shabia to delimit and demarcate the boundary with Ethiopia, Eritrea has its own boundaries known by the international communities.
To remind Jawar, it is Shabia who was started the war using Bademe as pretext, and it is not the then Ethiopian government who rejected the demarcation of the boundaries between the two countries (Jawar can ask the former minster and ambassador and now an adviser to Abiy, Ato Girma Biru who led the Ethiopians delegation to Eritrea before the start of the Bademe war to discuss how the relationship between the two countries should be in related to economic activities, trade, currency and other related issues). It is Shabia who was totally rejected the request of the Ethiopian government to create a good relationship between the two countries based on the principle of good neighborhood for the benefits of the two peoples. Besides, it is Shabia who violated the Alger’s agreement for border demarcation by evicted the United Nations peace keepers from its territory. Delimitation and demarcation have a long process and it is time consuming. Besides during this process legitimate questions might be raised and they need civilized negotiations and discussions between the two parties. Talking how the demarcation process can do is a legitimate question, but there is no any logic to connect this with the anticipating peace process by saying that “Eritrea could have a security threat from Tigray” and therefore, in the ongoing peace negotiation between Tigray and Abiy government, Eritrea case should be seen as “half domestic and half foreign”. This political stand is not only had problems, but also consequence. Let me ask question to Jawar. Why only Eritrea, and why not Sudan, or Egypt? What is the difference between the two? Or why we opposed Egypt involvement in the decision making of how the Ethiopian Grand Renaissance Dam should built, administer and function? If we allow officially Eritrea, a tiny and very poor country, what is the guarantee those directly or indirectly supported and supplied weapons to the killer government in Addis not asking to involve in our internal affairs? I raised this issue because unless they have political, religious, economic and security interests, they will not provide free and limitless help to the government in Addis. One important truth what Jawar missed to understand is the nature and behavior of Shabia. From its inception, Shabia has never been involved in civilized discussions to solve problem. Besides, unless you gave up everything what you have, and left nothing for you, don’t expect peace from Shabia! To say the least, the idea to Propose Shabia to involve in any kind of negotiations between Ethiopians is denying justice for the heinous crimes committed by Shabia against the people of Tigray. Asking the people of Tigray to sit and talk, or attempting any kind of efforts in the name of “peace” to decide the fate of Tigray by others in particular by Shabia is non-negotiable for all Tegarus, and I assume the same is true for the people of Ethiopia, who are not included “in short memory” groups categorized by Abiy.
Last, but not least what I agreed with Jawar is that any conflicts that has happened in Ethiopia should be settled by peaceful means. Unfortunately, the rule of governing for Abiy and his associates are conspiracy, deception, lies and political gambling. Besides he has hundreds of an armyworm youtubers and activists who are getting their monthly salary (sometimes with huge bonus if they lie more and deceived the public) from public money by the order of Abiy himself. In fact, it is better to say that Ethiopia is ruled by Facebook, youtubers, bloggers, and mainstream illiterate “political commentators”, in which many of them do have substandard knowledge about politics, economy, government and its role in the society, and other related issues. These supporters of Abiy are intoxicated with hate against the people of Tigray, and other than war, they are allergic for any kind of negotiation between Abiy and the government of Tigray or with other opposition groups. Hence, taking this into consideration together with the inefficiency of Abiy’s government in all aspects, I do not see the light through the tunnel. Therefore, instead of trying to appease the criminal Abiy, it is more helpful for Jawar to work how the government of Abiy will be replaced peacefully without bloodshed, and save the country from possible balkanization like the former Yugoslavia. What should be clear here is that the crimes committed against the people of Ethiopia under the administration of Abiy is beyond repair. What makes worst is that Abiy and his administration knew these facts and they are more fearful of losing power than participating in transitional democratic process. The discussion held in Ethiopian parliament on 7/7/22 with Abiy presence is revealing evidence that how bad Abiy mindset is and need an urgent action to remove this guy from power before he took the country of no return! Therefore, to avert the dooms day, it is the responsibility of Ethiopians to work together by avoiding hate to bring peaceful transition through all-inclusive political negotiation.