Sat. Jun 25th, 2022

By Gebreselema

In the past, I told myself forget about home since people will never give me room to be counted for.  Let them do whatever they wanted and let me live my life in the civilized world.  I did not even have had connection with people from Ethiopia. Most of my exile life has been with western society and including my close friends are from the west.  But this has changed now after the Tigray Genocide. Even before the Genocide was to come about, right away when Abiy came to power, I rang the Alarm bell and suggested that Tigreans from across Ethiopia must relocate to Tigray with their lives and with whatever they have had. I also suggested then the TPLF must repatriate from Addis Ababa to Tigray with all its Military personnel and with weapons. But I was called all kind of names for my deeper insight of foreseeing the Genocide coming on Tigray and for giving early warning to save lives of Tigreans.

the TPLF leaders run to Mekelle bare hand leaving the Tigreans population across Ethiopia in danger including their military and weapons in Addis Ababa and across the country.  Finally, what I feared has been happening.  What has made me write this piece is not to focus on the failure, but to suggest a way out of the mess and to move forward instead of doing the same thing over and over and expecting to get different result.  I will talk about failure of the TPLF leadership in protecting Tigreans and I will suggest solutions to move forward for a better future.  I do believe we can change the tragedy to an opportunity if we are willing to learn and to change.  Matter is dynamic, nothing is constant. I know we humans resist change because we become comfortable even in the misery, we get used to live in.

It must be known that talking about past failures is not bad.  If we talk about failures, we learn how we failed. They say forget the failure, but do not forget the lessons.  Talking about failure, weakness must not be considered as sin.  Talking itself is a natural freedom given by God. God created us with tongue, mouth to talk.  Telling people do not talk about problems or failure or weaknesses right now about Tigray is 100% wrong. I know those who says this they give reasons that Tigreans will be divided if they talk about failures, weakness, past sins of leaders.  So, they claim that every Tigreans has to shut up his mouth so that Tigreans can be united in time of trouble, specially this time.  But my observation is that Tigreans do not fear bullets, but Tigreans fear new ideas, critics.  This is very bad.  Bullet kills people which Tigreans do not fear.

But new idea, critics does not kill, actually new ideas, critics will save Tigreans from bullets. If a society is not allowed to speak or to express itself, it means that society is not allowed to think too.  Thus, Unity does not come by deceiving or by muzzling people or by persecuting people who to try to think and express themselves or their feelings.  Unity comes by doing the right things at the right time which includes expressing our thoughts at the right time. A society that is not allowed to think or to speak, will never progress or develop. One of the reason Tigray has been under genocide is not only because Tigray has had many enemies. It is also due to lack of visionary leadership. Israel has many enemies, but it is always ready to defend itself because it knows what will come on her.  If Israel allows itself to be attacked, it is not her enemies fault, it will be only because of her own weaknesses and failure to defend itself. Thus, failure to defend, protect Tigreans from Genocide does not set free the leaders of Tigray from being blamed for failing Tigray.

In 1991, I said, separating the Tigrignea speaking community by recycling Menelick and Mussoloni Agenda was wrong. At that time, I spoke to some TPLF members and Shabia members that dividing the Tigrignea speaking community was recycling Menelick Project that will never benefit the community.  But the response was illogical, and irrational and lacked vision for the people. Thus they divided the community into two based on the legacy of Menelik and Mussoloni project as a good thing, but not based on historical, ancestral basis. They divided the one family.  Tigray was officially besieged in 1991 by both TPLF and EPLF because it was denied access to the red sea by the very people who claimed to liberate Tigray by carrying 17 years bloody war that destroyed the fabric of Tigrean society. Despite 17 years fighting a bloody war in the name of liberation, they never identified the problem of Tigray and the solution for it. To solve any problem, one has to know the cause of the problem.

All problems are mathematical. One has to identify the problem and represent that by variables and formulate an equation and solve it.  If I build a house in an environment where the temperature (T Variable) is high, I have to consider the variable T in designing the architecture of the house.  If I am building the house also in an environment that experiences flooding during rainy season, I have to represent the flood variable (F variable).  If I am building a house in an environment where public safety is an issue, I have to consider safety (S variable) in the architecture of building the house.  There could be more variables to consider, but we can just consider these three variables.  We wanted to avoid high temperature (T), flooding ( F), and ensure security  or safety of the house. We wanted to formulate a mathematical model.  We want to keep the T at 22 degree Celsius; we wanted zero flooding into the house; we wanted 100 % safety of the house we would build.  We formulate this in linear form of Linear model:

Initial conditions:

         T = 22; F = 0; S = 100

         Formula:  T + F + S  = 22 + 0 + 100

(1)   T + F + S  = 122

We have to solve this equation to satisfy the constant temperature, flooding and safety we set up.  To maintain the temperature at 22 Celsius, we need to have many methods of ventilation, air conditioner. To maintain the flooding into the house, we have to build around the house some physical barrier to make sure flooding into  the house is zero. To keep the house safe and secure, we have to use many things to protect and  this include building a fence, having a dog, a night  and day  watchman or Infra red  electronic fence, Surveillance video  camera, drone guard equipped with 3D vision camera, and gun that can watch the house day and night. One can use all  the available tools to keep the house in the desired state of temperature, flooding, and security.

 Did Tigray do something similar to the above?  Did TPLF  know Tigray problems on day one ? What were the problems that forced  TPLF to wage bloody war for 17 years that bleed Tigray to death?  What were they ?  What were  the variables ? I have asked this  question for the past 30 years and I never got a single answer.  8 years ago, Aboy Sibhat said that General Hayelom died without knowing TPLF program.  I heard this myself from his own mouth when he was interviewed by radio Merhawi, I think It is  a radio station broadcast from  USA. Based on  Aboy Sibhat  own statement, it means all TPLF fighters never knew the program of TPLF.  If that is the case, all Tigreans never knew TPLF program too.  I think this is the cause of our failure to defend ourselves?

The only one thing I heard from TPLF leaders as the problem of Tigray was poverty.  However poverty is an effect, not a problem.  I do believe in cause and effect analysis. Any problem has two  aspects:

1. Cause

2. Effect

Poverty is a problem and it is an effect.  Poverty can be due to drought, backwardness, corruption, man made. The poverty in Tigray is man made according to my understanding. Poverty does not come from vacuum. To solve poverty problem, one has to solve the cause of poverty. Since the poverty and backwardness in Tigray was man made, the cause was not  identified and formulated. If we do not know the cause of poverty, we cannot solve it or avoid poverty.  Building infrastructure only cannot solve poverty.

Also the fact TPLF believed the red sea is for camel drinking is also indicated that TPLF did not know or  understand Tigrean problems and did not identify all the variables so that there were no solutions set up. All it did was it recycled the Menelick project which means it was a new wine in an old wine skin that the new wine burst out of the  old wine skin. 

These lack of  vision, formulation of the problems put Tigray under siege since 1991 because Tigray was not able to do import and export via its God given natural, historical and ancestral gateways the port of Massawa, Adolis and Assab even Beira. The red sea is Tigray’s security and economic gate, not for camels. That besiege has kept Tigray economically, and militarily more vulnerable since 1991. That plunged Tigray into no peace no war of 20 years which further made Tigray a war zone denying Tigray trade, mobility, investment, development which made Tigray economically dormant and militarily vulnerable. This no peace no war forced Tigreans to migrate to the rest of Ethiopia. Even Tigreans did not want to invest in Tigray during the no peace no war of 20 years. Reason, there was no market in Tigray. Thus Tigreans were investing in the rest of Ethiopia. These has brought more tragedy for the people of Tigray.

I personally knew when Abiy came to power through the backdoor. I did ring the alarm bell that Tigrean leader inaction will end Tigray in bloodshed, and I said Tigray will be washed by bloodbath. I suggested on day one all Tigreans to pack what they had and repatriate to Tigray for the safety of their lives. I also suggested the TPLF leaders to relocate to Tigray with their military and weapon. I said this before Abiy was inaugurated. But people were calling me crazy, and I was called many other names for no apparent reasons. So, the TPLF leaders ran to Mekelle bare hand with no consideration of the safety of Tigreans across Ethiopia. I believe so they did these because they did not think or foresee what was coming. They only thought about their own safety. Even Amhara elites were saying TPLF fleeing to Mekelle leaving weapons and its army in Addis, what will they do bare hand in Mekelle?  They said, “we will give them two years to enjoy life in Mekelle.”  Things were obvious.

Alas, TPLF leadership failed Tigray not only once, but many times, repeatedly. Indecision, inaction, lack of vision put Tigray in Genocide. The people of Tigray are bearing the brunt of almost 2 years active genocide, not because of their fault, but because of the incompetence of their leaders.

Now, what to be done?  The people of Tigray have been under siege for almost two years. No one is saving Tigreans. The so-called international community does not exist in real time.  We made ourselves locally, continentally, and globally irrelevant because we besieged ourselves since 1991. It is our own folly that now we are in the worst kind of besiege in history. We ourselves closed the door behind us and prepared ourselves to this besiege in1991. But now we are harvesting the final fruit of that folly. 

Now, Tigreans have paid huge price to rescue themselves from extermination. When Tigreans were killed, they have no choice, but to fight.  In a way it seems God is standing with Tigray, Tigreans fought hard and defeated the barbarian enemies who came from Ethiopia, Eritrea, Somalia, sponsored by Saudi, UAE, USAG, Russia,China, Turkey, Iran etc. Tigreans defeated the enemy with no outside help; This is miracle.  This miracle has been aborted by USA Government.  The President Donald Trump blessed the Tigray Genocide by giving permission to Abiy and Issayas to invade Tigray and his administration sponsored the Tigray Genocide. The current USA Government has renewed and prolonged the Tigray Genocide by aborting Tigreans victory.  Thanks to USA Government now our people are dying in 1000s each day.  Thank you President Joe Biden for prolonging our Genocide.

But what do we do now?  Do we die silently? 

This time is critical time for everyone who has Tigreans blood in him or her. The Tigray leaders are telling us they are elected by 2.7 million Tigreans?  Yes, you were elected. But you failed Tigray.  They say the best victory of any war is the victory of aborting and avoid the war. The best victory of Tigray could have been aborting and avoiding the Genocide. The leadership failed to do that and it is costing Tigreans too much.  The reason you were elected was to protect the people. If you failed to protect the people, you contract expires before due date.  It does not make any sense now to talk about election.  You failed. Now you have to work with all Tigreans. No more preaching about you being elected. It is nonesensical.

Dear TPLF leaders, because you were not able to abort and avoid the Genocide, you failed to protect Tigreans. Now all Tigreans are fighting not because of you, but because they were attacked, killed and raped. They are not waiting for you only. You are leading them, and everyone is fighting. You must stop talking about you being elected. Election was for a purpose so that people can be safe and get basic humans needs such as peace, food, water, electricity, clothing, security and safety.  The contract of election was to protect all these. Now you cannot act as if nothing happened.  Who is going to be accountable for the Genocide of more than 500 000 Tigrean civilian?,Who is going to be accountable for the more than 120 000 raped Tigreans women?  Who is going to be accountable for the destruction of Tigray? Is it only the enemies who must be blamed?  We must be also accountable for our own failures, specifically, the leadership is accountable for not preparing the people of Tigray for any worse scenario.  I am not saying we have to crucify the Tigray leaders. No, you have to admit you failed and no more election propaganda after now.  Now we all have to work together in this difficult time. 

The leaders has to listen now. At least after all these damages being done. Arrogance of ignorance must not be tolerated after now.  We need a new framework that has clear vision that has purposes, objectives, goals and targets. We cannot keep on doing the same thing over and over and expect different results. Nothing is constant in this world. Rigidity must not be tolerated. Everything must be done based on reason, study, and research. We must not work after now based on opinion or whims of people.  The so called Gimgema must be avoided as a plague. Gimgema is opinion, whim based and subjective. Gimgema or evaluation is two kind. Subjective  Gimgema  and Objective Gimgema. Subjective  Gimgebma is done by the owner of the project. Objective gimgema is done by external Gemgami who has no any interest in the project. One cannot lead about 11 million people by by subject Gimgema. Everything must be done by law, constitution, reason, study, research and by written operation manual, not by the whims of individuals.

My opinion can be wrong or right. If I lead about 11 million people by my opinion, if my opinion is wrong, I might take the 11 million people to the grave. Tigray needs new frame work. My way is the only must come to an end.  This time we use Israel  MOTO:  “  One Israel is for all  Israelis and all Israelis are one Israeli.”  This is the moto that has restored Israel as we see it today. We must say every Tigraway is for all Tegarus and all Tegarus are for one Tigreway.  Anything less than this will not help Tigray.

We have to stop demonizing people by calling them Banda.  Persecuting our own people will only accelerate our own demise. If people do mistake, they have to be corrected in time and scientifically.  Insulting, degrading, violating the dignity, integrity and humanity of individuals who did mistake will not be good. We must allow people to talk, to express themselves. I may have a bad idea, but if I do not express it and if people do not hear my idea, the bad idea will live with me because I will not have chance to express it.  If I express myself people we will hear my idea and they can tell me it is bad because of x, y, z reasons. In that ways I can learn and progress. 

I recommend the following Tigreans must do now:

1. Unite as never before because we are facing a critical challenge

2. Tigray Government forget talk about being elected by 2.7 million, It is expired now before due date

    because of the magnitude of the problem, we have because you did not protect the people proactively.

3. We need a new framework that must worked out by some people, not by all people.

4.  The framework must be different from the past with a clear vision of purposes, objectives,

     goals and targets

5. All Tigray human resources inside and outside Tigray must be exploited to the maximum

6. All Tigreans age 18 to 45 must join TDF by decree as national obligation

7. All diaspora must give their money because people are giving their lives

8. No talks of Transition Government right now, while the house is set on fire, you cannot talk about furnishing and repairing the house. It does not make sense.  Transition Government is a luxury and secondary that comes after safety and security. Before anything and before anyone, safety and security is paramount. Everything is secondary. Security means existence. We have to exist first to have transitional Government.

8. The TPLF must allow Satellite Internet to be deployed into Tigray. It does not matter who does it as long as it is gives service to the people of Tigray. Tigray Telecom will come later. Right now Tigray has nothing for almost two years.  Yet TPLF leaders wanted to keep Tigreans in darkness. This is irresponsible, recklessness and in-sensivity. Stop blocking diaspora from deploying satellite internet

9.   Establish bank urgently and use Satellite internet banking

10.  Print new Tigray Currency

11.  IF 8, 9, 10 is done, diaspora can send money directly to Tigray without middleman using

        bitcoin

12. Stop old way of doing things like network or nepotism

13. Use the previous or old laws to keep peace

14. Print new IDs to avoid spy of Abiy and Issayas

15.  End the Besiege by targeting Asmara and Massawa, needless to waste time going in and out of Afar, Wollo, Gonder, and West Tigray, not critically and strategically important.  Focusing on Asmara and Massawa and Adolis changes the game locally, continentally, and globally. The rest is secondary.

16.  Avoid the DERG syndrome called Cadres, use community to keep their peace, avoid the so called

        cadres

17.  Declare Unilateral Humanitarian Tigray Independence as remedial

18.  Expect nothing good from Ethiopia, give it up and more forward

19. Quick start Tigray Telecom, bank, electricity, water, etc no waiting to get services from enemies

No one must feel excluded, harassed, attacked, left out.  All Tigreans for one Tigreans and one Tigrean for all Tigreans.

If we unit and have a clear vision set, then we can reclaim, restore, and rebuild our historical, and ancestral ancient landmark and sea mark and we can realize Dagmawit Askum.

Let us change the tragedy to an opportunity.

By aiga